The social network company

Marketing (Week) Catches Up

Tom — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 12:06:38 +0000

Back in ’05 (like 7 whole digital years ago which is basically a lifetime in development speak) we began trialling a brand new tool for mapping social relations in the workplace. The Social Network Company developed “MindNet v1.0″ to look at work networks, advice and information flow across companies. Instead of snooping on emails or hiring MI5 to follow people, all we did to get data was to anonymously and confidentially ask people a lot of questions about their work colleagues.

Like – in your department ‘Who are the influencers?’, ‘Who are the brokers?’ ‘Who the isolates’ and Tom’s favourite question; ‘Who is at risk of having a good idea?’ (Here’s a clue – it’s not usually the isolates..)

The structure of social networks can tell you all these things and more. In essence a social network map in a small way can help you see around corners and predict the future; take out a hub and watch the whole thing fall apart, move a broker to embed in a cluster (instead of bridging) and watch ‘us vs them’ warfare emerge. Drop a vicious rumour in a watch it ripple across the 6 degrees of separation…

The tricky part of course with any analysis is getting good data. After all the computing adage holds true for any sociological study; GIGO- Garbage in-Garbage Out. Our data collection was based on email/online questions – now of course there are social media platforms too. Social media in case you hadn’t noticed provides one of the greatest if not THE greatest social data grab the world has ever seen.

Now instead of guessing how information flows you can actually KNOW how information flows. All you need is the back door key to get the data. Facebook is notoriously walled-garden, private;beware the dog etc. Twitter is built to be open. Other data can be retrieved from Flickr, Youtube even the greatest social network of all- Email.

Marketeers since Mad Men have been in a bit of a fix. The finance guys had a model; double entry book keeping, balance sheets, P & L and Return on Investment. That’s quite a tool kit. All marketeers had in contrast was a hunch.

Marketing was bit like rain dancing; you dance and lo, it rains. But sometimes you dance and woe, it doesn’t. Hmm. As John Wanamaker said, “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half.” Which has been a sort of industry joke for ever.

The weird thing is that most marketeers have read or heard of Malcolm Gladwell’s book- The Tipping Point, after all it makes them feel important; for who could possibly be more influential than a key influencer? A marketeer of course!) Tipping points happen, we know this in hindsight. But looking forwards there is no way of knowing for sure, 100% for sure whether a big action will have a big effect or not.Success is seductive. Marketeers like online viral hits because they promise the possibility of small things with a big effect. But somewhere deep down in the Marketing Psyche is an unwillingness to follow the theory through; big things have a small effect, small things have a small effect. Not everything tips. In fact most things don’t.

All too often marketing was retrospectively understood. And that’s an important distinction to make from actually knowing something before you start. Marketeers promise bang for buck, return on investment and are VERY keen (too keen) to provide case studies. But case studies are a classic case of selection bias and attribution bias. Show me the instances that DIDN’T work, explain to me what you did differently. I crave simplicity but give it to me – I am an adult – I can handle complexity.

So there’s a huge difference between making sense of something in the past and actually understanding it. All too often we confuse the two. Take for example a plane crash. We make sense of plane crashes by applying causation to effect; the pilot was drunk, the fly by wire broke, the fog was too thick. But all of these causes don’t help us to UNDERSTAND a plane crash. There are lots of planes that land successfully every day with drunk pilots at the helm of broken controls in bad weather.

So where are we going with this? Social media mapping in a small way enables marketeers for once to have a model; to be able to understand how their communications and adverts propogate – albeit only through online channels.

This is where Michael Nutley is going in Marketing Week article here on social media mapping tools.

Basically Social Media Mapping is not just helping to make sense of marketing (the old model) but helping to understand marketing. And that’s a huge, long overdue reason to be cheerful. A small step for social network analysis but a huge leap for the ‘discipline’ of marketing.

Facebook Virus

Tom — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 20:10:28 +0000

Facebook worm attack on BBC news.
Not news really… Facebook’s fatal flaw including paper on privacy vs digital nudism coming soon…

In the meantime there is a nice picture of worms courtesy of the BBC. Isn’t it strange how pictoral metaphors have nothing to do with tech reality? Surfing the web anyone? Where are the waves?

The Twittersphere Explained – ish

Tom — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 12:02:12 +0000

What is Twitter, a Social Network or a News Media?

At the social network company we often get asked about Twitter. Good honest questions like 'wot is it?' Fortunately it's now possible to analyse the WHOLE twittersphere. But don't do this at home. Downloading 1.27 Bn tweets from 41 M users will fry your brain & set your excel spreadsheet on FIRE. There's a great explanatory slideshow from Haewoon Kwak here.

Social Media Trends from Trendstream

Tom — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 23:25:28 +0000

Social Media Week Global State of Social Media in 2011
View more presentations from Tom Smith

Nice little deck on Social Media Trends from another Tom (at Trendstream)…Interesting to see that the network effect of Facebook is kicking Google’s Orkut into touch in Brazil (i.e the more people on it the more useful it is… A bit like when you’re the first to own a phone with a camera on – and no one can receive your prize snaps..- it’s hard being an early adopter; remember betamax?)

Enjoy.

5 Reasons Why Facebook is a Turkey

Tom — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 15:33:21 +0000

As Facebook gathers in it’s 7 billionth member – a few things are worth taking stock of and reflecting on (before you shell out on shares).

Just what is it about Facebook that makes it so great? Or not. Is it the next Google or is it the next MySpace? Or is it unique? Somehow I doubt it.

Facebook is a social utility. Nothing more. It enables people in real world social networks, most of which predate Facebook itself, to reconnect and maintain their ‘friend’ships. That’s all it does.

(Oh and it has an annoying wall ‘stream’ that prevents interaction between fans or friends – because recency (not relevancy) is the thing).

The idea of posting information on walls for other people in your network to see is nothing new.

So what has Facebook got exactly? It’s certainly got momentum. It’s certainly got a core base of ‘superfans’ (1% of users who live/breath Facebook) but is it viable and is it sustainable or is it just a bubble?

Here at the social network company we reckon it’s a Turkey. And here’s just 5 reasons why;

First, imagine a field full of Turkeys. (I know it’s hard but try..) “The future’s bright- the future’s rosy” they gobble to each other. “But what about the pig that got taken away?” Some say. “It’s different for us” says the Chief Stag. “And what about the Sheep?” others say. “We are not sheep” says Chief Gobbler. And he’s right. Turkeys are not sheep or pigs.

And then Christmas comes.

A Turkey born on the 26th December, on the 24th of December the following year – could be forgiven for thinking that life was pretty good and the future is rosy. The only difference with Facebook is that no-one knows what day Christmas will be.

So here are our 5 reasons or tell tale signs that Facebook is heading for a side order of cranberry sauce.

1. Goldman Sachs are involved. “Hey let’s value this at $10Bn, no $50bn …no wait…$100bn”. Now I’m not suggesting that Goldman Sachs always ramp and dump. It’s just that they sometimes do.. And the trick they seem to teach with ‘The Greater Fool’ is to not be holding the parcel when the music stops…. As my Gran used to say “you can tell a person’s character from the company they keep”, Amen.

2. MySpace. Enough said really. Victim of the Rupert Murdoch Anti-Midas touch. But lets not forget the others. Friendster (RIP), Friends Re-united (old value £175M, new value £20M), Bebo (old value £417M, new value £40M), MySpace (old value $850M, new value $100M).

Now I’m not Alan Sugar, but it seems the best way to make 10′s of Millions with online social networks is to start with 100′s of Millions…. Of course Facebook is different. Probably.

3. Facebook is a MeMe. As a narcissistic exercise in solipsism, Facebook is unsurpassed. But hey ho – we live in an attention economy based on self publicity and funded by advertising. But we also live on a hedonistic treadmill powered by the juice of the NEW.

Online Social Network forums are like bars or nightclubs – and as such they are prey to fashions and trends. Sure, there’s a metcalfe law thing going on, with a growing inertia, but they are still ‘bars’. First the exclusive-cool people go there, then the chavs arrive… and the cool people leave. And then eventually, the chavs leave. It’s not a new sociological phenomena.

There’s also not just a bit of the el-farol bar problem going on here. There will be a cooler site soon than Facebook. Much cooler. In this year’s colour too. And Facebook will one day look like your Dad’s favourite (shut) Music Hall where he used to do the twist. Again and again.

4. Danah Boyd said so. She of the website Apophenia is the guru of all things social. In a recent Bloomberg article, Boyd said “the thing about user adoption and user departure is that it’s not a steady flow – Think of it as if you’re knitting a beautiful scarf, and you’re knitting and knitting and you get a bigger and bigger scarf. Then someone pulls a loose thread at the bottom. And it all unravels”. Wise words. For some reason I can just imagine Danah knitting. Not scarves… but hats. Facebook’s Beacon project was a loose thread. There will be more.

5. Following on from Danah Boyd comes Duncan Watts, network scientist at Yahoo research. His latest book on Everything is Obvious: How commons sense fails takes a good pop at predicting the future – or not. Facebook’s success was all down to Zuckerberg .. or was it luck. Roll the dice 100 times and Facebook may only come on top once. So it’s not special after all…And if it’s not special it’s not invincible. It may however, be lucky. And keep being lucky for a while. It’s just unlikely to be lucky for forever. Not impossible mind. Just unlikely.

Completing our trio of doomsayers is Paul Ormerod. His great book ‘Why Most Things Fail” rather soberly points out that 99.9% of species that have ever existed are now extinct. And then goes on to show the same is true of business; banks, railroads, steel companies, pharmaceuticals – nothing it seems, is built for ever. What’ll do for Facebook will be some Caesar-Brutus like internal shennigans (endogenous shock) like wot-did-it for MySpace or some external meteor (exogenous shock) like the rock that wiped out the dinosaurs (Remember Olivetti? Netscape? Lycos, Altavista?). Either way the future’s not bright. For anyone.

So there we go. 5 reasons why Facebook is a Turkey – But on the bright side – it could be worse; battery chickens after all, only live for 40 days.

So what to do about a problem like Facebook?

Well I recommend that while there’s music & moonlight & love & romance , we should face(book) the music and dance. Sounds like a cheerful song….

Only – when (not if, but when) you lose your shirt (and your data) – Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Gobble-gobble.